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Strained Turkey-US Relations Unveiled

Implications for Geopolitical Maneuvering in the Middle East

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 Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation


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Biden’s Control and Geopolitical Maneuvering

The presence of F-16 fighters capable of carrying nuclear weapons in Ukraine is seen by Russia as a nuclear threat from the West, according to Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. However, the Kremlin has additional concerns beyond the F-16 fighters. In Vilnius, it has become apparent that there is strain in Erdogan’s relationship with the White House, which has been described as a “new stage in Turkey-US relations” by the media. While Ankara has officially followed Washington’s recommendations and shown willingness to support Sweden’s entry into NATO, the reality indicates that President Biden has effectively controlled the unpredictable Turkish leader. This has secured a significant partner for geopolitical maneuvering in the Middle East, with the goal of countering the influence of China and Russia, among other objectives. Erdogan’s actions will enable the US to exert substantial influence over the power dynamics in the region.


Turkey’s Shifting Alliances

Until recently, Turkey has vacillated between alignment with Washington and Moscow. At times, Erdogan has even been labeled as “pro-Russian,” and this assessment is not entirely unfounded. Despite Western sanctions, Turkey maintains trade ties with Moscow. Now, Turkey appears to be assuming an additional role: the country will intensify its own involvement in the Middle East, displacing weakened Russian influence and vying with Beijing for greater regional clout. Even in the post-Soviet space, where Putin’s ailing CSTO members have sought alternative patrons, Turkey supported by the USA, presents itself as a viable option.


Turkey as a Trojan Horse

According to our sources, Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, believes Turkey could act as a Trojan horse within the EU to undermine the organization from within. Erdogan has suggested swapping Sweden’s NATO aspirations for Turkish EU membership. A noteworthy development is Erdogan potentially becoming the primary negotiator with Russia, supplanting the United States. He has aligned with Ukraine and shown influence over Russia through audacious actions, such as unilaterally dictating grain agreement terms and delivering Azov Sea leaders to Kyiv without extensive consultation with the Kremlin. Erdogan even requested a conversation with Putin from Ankara, though it is unlikely Putin will visit due to legal concerns. Monitoring Erdogan and Putin’s communication is essential as something of significant importance is evidently taking place.




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Putin’s Absence and Health Concerns

In the past two days, Vladimir Putin has notably been absent from official events, with only a telephone conversation held with the President of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev. Instead, a double has been attending these events on behalf of the “president.” Putin’s health has been deteriorating, leading him to decline participation in official events and delegating them to his double. However, it should be noted that Putin personally reviews reports, engages in closed meetings, and gives his consent or refusal to implement decisions. Notably, Putin has been deliberately delaying the adoption of decisions and postponing the resolution of various issues indefinitely.

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Putin’s Meeting on Ukraine Front

On Tuesday, Putin received reports and conducted two closed meetings through video link. During a meeting with military leaders, Putin was briefed on the situation at the front, where he emphasized that the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was supposedly faltering and that Ukrainian tanks, air defense systems, and long-range missiles had suffered significant losses. However, Putin questioned the high number of casualties despite the claimed success. The military representatives attempted to explain that it was the result of resisting the enemy’s fierce attempts to break through the front, but Putin found their explanation unsatisfactory, leading to a negative reaction and criticism. The meeting concluded with Putin inquiring about the prospects of achieving the promised “great victories” and the liberation of new territories, receiving promising but vague responses.


Putin’s Subdued Response to Crisis Warning

During a recent meeting, Putin displayed a more subdued and somber demeanor. He listened quietly as the Secretary of the Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, criticized him and expressed dissatisfaction with his refusal to make decisions on various issues. Patrushev warned of an impending large-scale crisis that could destabilize the already unbalanced system, largely due to Putin’s avoidance of crucial decision-making. Interestingly, Putin did not respond to these concerns and concluded the meeting. It is evident that Putin’s serious illness hinders his ability to act as a crisis manager, a role on which the Russian power system heavily relies. The system itself is becoming increasingly imbalanced, and Putin’s inner circle is preparing for a significant crisis while gradually reducing their dependence on his involvement and leadership. Urgent action is necessary from Putin to address the mounting challenges faced by the power structure in Russia, as he remains at its core.

Global Power Dynamics Unveiled

  • Strained Turkey-US relations
  • Geopolitical maneuvering in MENA
  • F-16 fighters in Ukraine
  • Nuclear threat from the West
  • Russian concerns
  • Kremlin’s additional concerns
  • Erdogan’s relationship with US
  • New stage in Turkey-US relations
  • President Biden’s control
  • Unpredictable Turkish leader
  • Geopolitical partnership
  • Countering influence of China and Russia
  • Turkey’s role in the Middle East
  • Weakened Russian influence
  • Turkey as a viable option
  • Trojan horse within the EU
  • Turkey’s influence in the EU
  • Primary negotiator with Russia
  • Erdogan’s audacious actions
  • Erdogan’s influence over Russia
  • Erdogan-Putin communication
  • Putin’s absence from official events
  • Putin’s deteriorating health
  • Putin’s double
  • Delayed decision-making by Putin
  • Impending crisis
  • Putin’s serious illness
  • power structure challenges in Russia
  • Putin’s leadership in crisis management


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