The presence of F-16 fighters capable of carrying nuclear weapons in Ukraine is seen by Russia as a nuclear threat from the West, according to Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. However, the Kremlin has additional concerns beyond the F-16 fighters. In Vilnius, it has become apparent that there is strain in Erdogan’s relationship with the White House, which has been described as a “new stage in Turkey-US relations” by the media. While Ankara has officially followed Washington’s recommendations and shown willingness to support Sweden’s entry into NATO, the reality indicates that President Biden has effectively controlled the unpredictable Turkish leader. This has secured a significant partner for geopolitical maneuvering in the Middle East, with the goal of countering the influence of China and Russia, among other objectives. Erdogan’s actions will enable the US to exert substantial influence over the power dynamics in the region.
Turkey’s Shifting Alliances
Until recently, Turkey has vacillated between alignment with Washington and Moscow. At times, Erdogan has even been labeled as “pro-Russian,” and this assessment is not entirely unfounded. Despite Western sanctions, Turkey maintains trade ties with Moscow. Now, Turkey appears to be assuming an additional role: the country will intensify its own involvement in the Middle East, displacing weakened Russian influence and vying with Beijing for greater regional clout. Even in the post-Soviet space, where Putin’s ailing CSTO members have sought alternative patrons, Turkey supported by the USA, presents itself as a viable option.
Turkey as a Trojan Horse
According to our sources, Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, believes Turkey could act as a Trojan horse within the EU to undermine the organization from within. Erdogan has suggested swapping Sweden’s NATO aspirations for Turkish EU membership. A noteworthy development is Erdogan potentially becoming the primary negotiator with Russia, supplanting the United States. He has aligned with Ukraine and shown influence over Russia through audacious actions, such as unilaterally dictating grain agreement terms and delivering Azov Sea leaders to Kyiv without extensive consultation with the Kremlin. Erdogan even requested a conversation with Putin from Ankara, though it is unlikely Putin will visit due to legal concerns. Monitoring Erdogan and Putin’s communication is essential as something of significant importance is evidently taking place.
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In the past two days, Vladimir Putin has notably been absent from official events, with only a telephone conversation held with the President of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev. Instead, a double has been attending these events on behalf of the “president.” Putin’s health has been deteriorating, leading him to decline participation in official events and delegating them to his double. However, it should be noted that Putin personally reviews reports, engages in closed meetings, and gives his consent or refusal to implement decisions. Notably, Putin has been deliberately delaying the adoption of decisions and postponing the resolution of various issues indefinitely.
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On Tuesday, Putin received reports and conducted two closed meetings through video link. During a meeting with military leaders, Putin was briefed on the situation at the front, where he emphasized that the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was supposedly faltering and that Ukrainian tanks, air defense systems, and long-range missiles had suffered significant losses. However, Putin questioned the high number of casualties despite the claimed success. The military representatives attempted to explain that it was the result of resisting the enemy’s fierce attempts to break through the front, but Putin found their explanation unsatisfactory, leading to a negative reaction and criticism. The meeting concluded with Putin inquiring about the prospects of achieving the promised “great victories” and the liberation of new territories, receiving promising but vague responses.
Putin’s Subdued Response to Crisis Warning
During a recent meeting, Putin displayed a more subdued and somber demeanor. He listened quietly as the Secretary of the Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, criticized him and expressed dissatisfaction with his refusal to make decisions on various issues. Patrushev warned of an impending large-scale crisis that could destabilize the already unbalanced system, largely due to Putin’s avoidance of crucial decision-making. Interestingly, Putin did not respond to these concerns and concluded the meeting. It is evident that Putin’s serious illness hinders his ability to act as a crisis manager, a role on which the Russian power system heavily relies. The system itself is becoming increasingly imbalanced, and Putin’s inner circle is preparing for a significant crisis while gradually reducing their dependence on his involvement and leadership. Urgent action is necessary from Putin to address the mounting challenges faced by the power structure in Russia, as he remains at its core.
Global Power Dynamics Unveiled
Strained Turkey-US relations
Geopolitical maneuvering in MENA
F-16 fighters in Ukraine
Nuclear threat from the West
Kremlin’s additional concerns
Erdogan’s relationship with US
New stage in Turkey-US relations
President Biden’s control
Unpredictable Turkish leader
Countering influence of China and Russia
Turkey’s role in the Middle East
Weakened Russian influence
Turkey as a viable option
Trojan horse within the EU
Turkey’s influence in the EU
Primary negotiator with Russia
Erdogan’s audacious actions
Erdogan’s influence over Russia
Putin’s absence from official events
Putin’s deteriorating health
Delayed decision-making by Putin
Putin’s serious illness
power structure challenges in Russia
Putin’s leadership in crisis management
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