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Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation

Chronicles of an Apocalypse Part 2

New York (RichTVX.com) — Chronicles of an Apocalypse Part 2 explores how world leaders’ stance on nuclear weapons can be influenced by geopolitical regions. For instance, China’s position on nuclear weapons is critical as it can impact global politics significantly. If China opposes the use of nuclear weapons under any circumstances, this will have a bearing on the situation at hand. However, if conventional weapons prove ineffective against Ukraine, and the need arises to use nuclear weapons, the stance of China’s leader becomes crucial. Nevertheless, it is essential to acknowledge that no world leader can truly influence Putin’s intentions; this is but an illusion. As the sovereign of the Russian Federation, Putin is entirely independent of external influences owing to his position as the head of state with a nuclear triad. Only the United States and China possess such a nuclear triad, but while China requires a nuclear umbrella, Russia does not. It is also worth noting that China is more potent in terms of population and economic capabilities. However, if China decides to take military action and needs protection against the United States’ nuclear triad, Beijing requires Moscow more than Moscow requires to sever ties with China. This must also be considered when discussing their relationship. The end of the war remains uncertain, and four possible scenarios have been repeatedly discussed. The first scenario involves Ukraine’s restoration of territorial integrity and entry into NATO, but the outcome of this scenario depends on Moscow and other world leaders. The second scenario involves regaining territorial borders without any assurances of security from NATO, leading to a continuation of the war. The third scenario entails international recognition of the borders and peaceful attempts to resolve the territorial integrity issue, which may never materialize. The fourth scenario is the absence of an international agreement on the border, resulting in the resumption of hostilities in the future.

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It is crucial to recognize that even if the war ends, Russia will not acknowledge Ukraine’s state borders, and any Ukrainian state border crossing or conflict line in Donbas or the south will be regarded as a demarcation line. Ukraine will be considered a state that occupies Russian Federation territory. If Ukraine succeeds in liberating its land from Russian occupation, this is the reality that we’ll face for the next 20 to 25 years, assuming that the West displays the necessary political determination. Assuming Ukraine joins NATO, it would bring about a peaceful reality provided the West demonstrates political will. However, if the West fails to show political will, Ukraine will not be able to join NATO, leading to protracted and endless military conflicts of varying intensity. The likelihood of the West not displaying political will is uncertain, as Western politicians have discussed this matter repeatedly, but actions speak louder than words. For instance, Finland and Sweden’s application to join NATO was expected to be an effortless process, but there has been no “easy victory.” While Finland and Sweden have agreements with the United States and Great Britain on security guarantees, equivalent to joining NATO, Ukraine can apply to NATO. Even before its acceptance, some NATO members may exhibit political will and sign an agreement with Ukraine on security guarantees. This agreement would extend the nuclear umbrella to the territories controlled by the legitimate Ukrainian government, ensuring peace in those areas. However, other territories may still be in conflict and tragedy until Moscow or Beijing decide that they are prepared for a real nuclear conflict, which may not happen in our lifetime. The earthquake that struck Turkey was a catastrophic event, comparable in force to 50 nuclear bombs. However, despite the devastation, the Turkish state managed to continue functioning and addressing political and social issues, with its institutions remaining intact. It appears that Vladimir Putin has come to understand that using nuclear weapons against Ukraine or the West would not yield any positive outcomes until a certain threshold of destruction is reached. While it is often discussed that we may be entering a period of difficult international wars, the question remains: can Putin retain power in Russia after such a conflict? Although he may theoretically be able to, he may struggle to govern effectively in practice. The most likely scenario where Putin retains control is if the war does not come to an end, which currently appears to be the case. It is worth noting that during the Iraq-Kuwait conflict, the international community stood with Kuwait, and the Kuwaiti ambassador remained steadfast even while his country was occupied by the Iraqi army. Stay tuned for part 3.

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Aleksandar Vučić, President of Serbia

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Vladimir Putin, President of Russian Federation