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In analyzing the 500-day conflict in Ukraine, it is imperative to adopt a comprehensive and well-informed perspective. While some may perceive Ukraine’s counteroffensive as slow and Russia’s defensive preparations as unexpectedly effective, a closer examination reveals a more nuanced reality. Previously commanding both fear and admiration as the “bunker grandfather,” Vladimir Putin now faces a Hague subpoena from the International Criminal Court, while the Russian Federation has suffered significant financial losses in its EU gas and oil contracts.

While Putin may cling to fragments of his former wealth, his once-perceived omnipotence has waned. In the past year, the global community has resolutely declared its backing for Ukraine, acknowledging the imperative of thwarting the Führer and Russia’s triumph. International actors have displayed their readiness to aid Ukraine in countering Russian aggression and confronting the issue of racism within Russia. This marks a noteworthy departure from initial reservations about becoming entangled in the conflict. Geopolitical wisdom crystallizes in this scenario: Possession of nuclear weapons affords even the most unstable leaders a semblance of political invincibility.

Criticism leveled at the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ slower counteroffensive lacks justification when considering the formidable challenges they face. A significant impediment to their progress has been the scarcity of equipment and ammunition. Had Ukraine received the timely provision of Western military devices it required, their units could have accomplished their objectives swiftly, driving Russia back to its 1991 borders. In contrast, Russia has fortified its military capabilities through organizational enhancements and securing essential equipment and supplies. The repercussions of Western indecision have become unmistakably evident. The West is gradually awakening to the realization that nuclear weapons alone cannot rectify an unstable leadership. Consequently, discussions surrounding a transition of power in Moscow have emerged. However, customary hesitations persist, leaving decision-makers grappling with the quandary of whether to remove the Führer swiftly or adopt a phased approach. Furthermore, the potential implications for China’s stance on such a transition introduce an additional layer of intricacy.

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Western intelligence sources indicate ongoing efforts to forge a collaborative strategy with Beijing to facilitate a smooth transition of power within the Kremlin. The objective is to navigate this process delicately, minimizing the risk of the Russian Federation’s collapse and the emergence of multiple nuclear republics. This cooperative endeavor aims to replace Putin with a new leader who aligns with the interests of both Beijing and Washington. Recent developments attributed to Prigozhin should be interpreted as an initial warning to the current Kremlin ruler. Recognizing the imperative of devising a new doctrine of international security, world leaders have accorded Ukraine a prominent role in this endeavor. While negotiations regarding Ukraine’s NATO membership are still underway, its inclusion is not in doubt. In the transitional phase, security guarantees are under discussion, drawing inspiration from the Israeli approach and involving neighboring nations such as Poland, which possess firsthand experience with Russian aggression.

 

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The agreements reached between the leadership of PMC Wagner and Russia, under the mediation of Alexander Lukashenko on June 24 during the military mutiny, are exhibiting signs of strain. A faction led by Secretary of the Security Council Nikolai Patrushev, surrounding Vladimir Putin, expresses dissatisfaction with the non-compliance of both Putin and Yevgeny Prigozhin, and seeks a return to the previously established framework. Earlier reports indicated that shortly after reaching an agreement to quell the rebellion, Putin declined to fulfill a crucial condition set by Prigozhin on behalf of PMC Wagner. This condition entailed the removal, resignation, and prosecution of Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov from the leadership of the SMO. The negotiation process, overseen by Nikolai Patrushev, had witnessed agreement on most matters, with President Putin exhibiting no negative sentiment toward any of them. However, subsequent to accepting all terms and effectively quashing the rebellion, Putin resolutely refused to fulfill the principal condition. This firm stance greatly displeased Prigozhin and the leadership of the Wagner PMC. Prigozhin personally conveyed a message to Putin, unequivocally expressing his refusal to honor specific obligations and reaffirming his intention to maintain control over the Wagner PMC, even within Russian borders.

Putin’s response to the message was met with an air of indifference, yet it ignited a deep anger within chief curator Nikolai Patrushev and a substantial segment of the power bloc leadership. Despite Patrushev’s limited leverage to exert pressure on the president for compliance, concerted efforts are underway to enforce the agreed terms with Prigozhin. Lukashenko was enlisted by Patrushev in an attempt to reason with Prigozhin, but his involvement proved unproductive, with indications that he welcomed the potential breakdown of the agreements. Despite the escalating possibility of a crisis with Prigozhin, Putin steadfastly refuses to engage in meaningful discussions or actively seek solutions. Instead, he relies on Patrushev, placing hope in a self-resolution of the situation. This leadership dynamic, characterized by weakness and incompetence, foreshadows an imminent political crisis on the horizon.