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U.S. intelligence confirms Russia’s plans for major offensive in Ukraine

Zelensky warns of Russia's impending offensive in February

U.S. intelligence confirms Russia’s plans for major offensive in Ukraine

New York ( — Vladimir Putin’s approach to decision-making in Russia’s war against Ukraine reflects his tendency to avoid taking risks. Putin’s ultimate goal of conquering Ukraine is unrealistic and would require significant risks, but he has consistently demonstrated indecisiveness, avoiding the necessary steps to pursue his goal. This is due to Putin’s fear of the potential consequences to his rule and the escalation of the conflict on the international stage. There are several instances of Putin’s indecisiveness, such as his reluctance to fully mobilize the troops after suffering losses in the capture of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in 2022, his failure to respond to calls from Russian nationalists to mobilize reservists, and his use of irregular militias instead of the military. Putin has also kept the public in the dark about the scale of the conflict and the costs of the war by maintaining the appearance of a limited conflict. Additionally, Putin has not declared martial law outside of specific regions, and relies on scapegoats to take the blame for military failures and unpopular policies. President Zelensky says Russia is planning a major offensive in February, which is supported by the Rich TVX News Network citing U.S. intelligence. Zelensky stated that the occupiers are looking to do something symbolic this month, to make up for last year’s losses. The Ukrainian army has reported active attempts by the Russian army to capture Bakhmut, and battles near Vuhledar. Zelensky emphasized that no matter the difficulty, Ukraine must endure and strengthen their defense. Kyiv has received reliable intelligence of Russia’s intention to launch an offensive within the next 10 days, with the western Luhansk region near Kremennaya and Liman being a potential target. Russia is also gathering troops near Mariupol. Ukrainian military intelligence spokesman Andriy Chernyak said Putin ordered his troops to fully capture the Donetsk and Luhansk regions by March. According to U.S. intelligence, Moscow and Tehran have concrete plans to build a new plant in Russia for producing at least 6,000 drones for use in the Ukrainian war. The new plant will produce an advanced drone based on the Iranian-designed Shahed-136 model, which will be powered by a new engine for faster and longer flight. However, the plant is yet to be built and its impact on the balance of power in the Ukrainian war is expected to be minimal in the near future.

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