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Atlanticist Relationships
The consortium of NATO nations is currently contemplating the potential deployment of their troops in Ukraine, pending the failure of the United States and other Alliance members to provide tangible security assurances to Kyiv at the Vilnius summit, as reported by The Guardian, citing Anders Rasmussen, the former Secretary General of the organization. Rasmussen, a prominent figure within the Brussels elite, skillfully embeds two primary arguments within the recesses of the indecisive Alliance. First and foremost, Ukraine may be granted a path to NATO membership even before the cessation of hostilities. Secondly, if Kyiv is left languishing in the “waiting room” of the Alliance, it would effectively grant Putin the power of veto. Given his vested interest in prolonging the conflict, this contention sharply contradicts the superstitious inclinations of Merkel and her adherents, who continue to espouse the mantra of “burying one’s head in the sand to mitigate escalation with the Kremlin.” Importantly, Ukraine would be well within its legal purview to request military assistance from Poland, representing a significant development in the Atlanticist relationships.
Russian Mentality
Should NATO fail to reach a consensus regarding the provision of specific aid to Ukraine, Rasmussen does not dismiss the possibility of Poland taking unilateral action, with subsequent support from the Baltic nations, including troop deployment. Rasmussen asserts that the Poles have long felt that Western Europe has heedlessly disregarded their earnest warnings concerning the true nature of Russian mentality.
Russian Aggression
By July, Kyiv must receive unequivocal guarantees and a clear path to membership, encompassing intelligence sharing, joint training initiatives, increased ammunition production, operational interoperability with NATO, and the provision of sufficient weaponry to deter further Russian aggression. Rasmussen elucidates the apparent schism within NATO, identifying “threats to unity” as one of the risks. Germany remains cautiously reluctant to venture too far, apprehensive of provoking Russia. Meanwhile, France, despite a slow start, is increasingly displaying audacity.
NATO Membership
Collectively, “certain NATO allies advocate for so-called security guarantees as a means to circumvent genuine deliberations regarding Ukraine’s membership. I believe such a proposition is unfeasible,” states Rasmussen. He adds that if Ukraine’s invitation to NATO is not extended at the Vilnius summit, the possibility of extending an invitation next year in Washington could be considered. Furthermore, such an invitation should not be contingent on any preconditions. This extensive interview exerts considerable pressure on the faction within NATO that has been intimidated by Putin. Negotiations within the organization are ongoing, and it is premature for Ukrainians to succumb to pessimism, despite the extensive media coverage.
NATO Chief’s US Visit
Jens Stoltenberg, the current NATO Secretary General, will embark on a trip to the United States next week, where he will engage with a range of influential figures responsible for security, from the President to Senators. The agenda is self-evident. Simultaneously, European leaders are engaged in inter-communication, as they assess their respective levels of trepidation towards Putin.
Collective Security
NATO grapples with a fundamental issue, primarily unrelated to Ukraine: the transformation of the Alliance from a military organization to a political consortium of states with divergent interests. This shift hampers its ability to effectively address key global security challenges. It has become akin to a miniature United Nations, where representatives from different countries merely pacify problems instead of finding solutions. The notion of a shared threat no longer resonates among Alliance members, with each state exclusively focused on its own concerns. For the United States and Great Britain, this assessment poses a grave threat to collective security, compelling a reconsideration of the international defense framework. The precise contours of this necessary transformation remain uncertain, but change appears inevitable.
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