Russia is heading towards a potential economic collapse as oil prices fall to unsustainable levels, according to financier and Kremlin critic Sir Bill Browder.

Speaking in an interview with Times Radio, Browder warned that Russia’s primary war funding source – oil – is under severe pressure, with prices for its flagship Urals crude dropping to around $51 per barrel, significantly below the Kremlin’s break-even level.

“Oil is the lubricant that allows Russia to continue to fight the war,” Browder stated. “If these prices stay this low, we could end up seeing Russia going into a real economic catastrophe.”

Mounting Desperation

He described a regime under immense pressure: military losses nearing 940,000 troops, 11,000 tanks, and $300 billion in frozen reserves. Yet President Vladimir Putin remains unaccountable.

“In a democratic country, we couldn’t have sustained one-hundredth of these losses without a change in leadership,” Browder said. “But Putin can carry on, as long as he keeps his grip on power.”

Amid rising losses and strained production, Russia is reportedly relying heavily on foreign partners, including North Korea (which is allegedly supplying up to 80% of artillery ammunition) and China. Browder also cited reports of Chinese soldiers captured on the front lines, with claims they were nearly killed by Russian chemical weapons to prevent their capture.

China’s Strategic Gains

Browder warned that China stands to gain the most, economically and strategically, from Russia’s vulnerability.

“China’s licking its lips – buying cheap oil, selling into markets abandoned by the West, and gaining influence without spending its own resources,” he said.

He argued that China is monitoring Western cohesion, particularly the U.S. response to Ukraine, as a litmus test for potential action against Taiwan.

Internal Instability & Putin’s Paranoia

The former investor turned anti-corruption advocate also highlighted growing discontent among Russia’s oligarchs and regional leaders, suggesting Moscow’s grip may be loosening. However, he emphasized that fear continues to silence dissent.

“Putin is probably the richest man in the world – and that’s a job a lot of people want. He knows it, and that’s why he kills or jails anyone who poses a threat,” he said.

Trump and the False Peace Narrative

Turning to the U.S., Browder was scathing of President Donald Trump, who he said continues to spread misleading narratives about peace deals with Russia.

“This war was started by Putin to stay in power – to distract from 25 years of kleptocracy. It’s not about NATO. It’s not about empire. It’s about survival,” he said.