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“Energy Analysts Have Fallen into Groupthink, Need to Clear the Smoke” – Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven Tian Warn Experts of Common Traps in Predicting Oil Price

Is the Saudi-Led OPEC+ Oil Cut Really That Significant?

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The Truth Behind the Saudi-Led OPEC+ Oil Cut

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In the coming days, individuals of the Jewish faith worldwide will partake in Pesach, a commemoration of liberation. During this occasion, they will read the Haggadah, a holy manuscript. Previously, Russian was the primary language utilized in religious practices amongst the Jewish community in Ukraine due to historical events and the Soviet Union’s influence. Despite the availability of translations of both the Torah and the Tanakh in Russian, they were not translated into Ukrainian. However, the recent war drastically altered the situation. The Russian aggression against Ukraine resulted in a shift away from the use of the Russian language. Russian-speaking Ukrainians, including Jews, have begun transitioning to Ukrainian as a result. This transition has prompted the translation of Jewish texts into Ukrainian. Pardon those who have wronged you, but perpetually remember their identities. We strongly advise reading the Fortune article entitled “Energy analysts have been making gaseous calls since Russia invaded Ukraine. It’s time to clear away the smoke of economic groupthink,” authored by Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven Tian. Jeffrey Sonnenfeld holds the esteemed title of Lester Crown Professor in Management Practice and Senior Associate Dean at the prestigious Yale School of Management. Steven Tian, on the other hand, serves as the director of research at the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute and previously worked as an investment analyst at Rockefeller Capital.

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The surprise cut by Saudi-led OPEC+ of one million barrels a day has momentarily increased oil prices. However, there is less to the situation than meets the eye. Russia has already announced a 500,000 barrel cut to disguise its own production problems, so Saudi Arabia is cutting only 500,000 barrels from their quota. This cut will not have much of an impact as most OPEC+ countries produce less than their quotas allow. Moreover, other OPEC+ countries are increasing production, and there are internal OPEC fractures. Saudi Arabia and Russia will lose more market share to production increases in other countries such as the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Guyana. Energy analysts have made many incorrect predictions about oil and gas prices, with prices hitting new lows every day despite predictions of price spikes. Experts often flock to the same position due to professional insecurity, a desire for peer affirmation, plain laziness, or risk aversion. Dissenters may be ostracized as troublemakers. In rushing to support the presumed conventional wisdom, so-called expert voices often fall for misguided groupthink unsupported by factual evidence. The uniformity of expert stances is rather striking. Energy analysts tend to overlook factors such as misunderstanding government policies and the G7 oil price cap, and underestimating the private sector’s support for Biden’s policies. Energy analysts must avoid groupthink and recognize classic traps.


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